New York — In a surprising twist, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) is staging an impressive comeback on the stock market, with its recent performance driven almost entirely by the growing perception that Donald Trump could secure a victory in the upcoming 2024 presidential election. The company, which owns the social media platform Truth Social, had been struggling for much of the year, but its fortunes have reversed in a spectacular way.
On September 23, 2024, the company’s stock plummeted to $12.15, marking a drastic 82% drop from its March high. This decline left investors questioning the future of the company, which had not launched any significant business initiatives or products to sustain growth. Yet, in the weeks since, TMTG’s stock has rebounded by nearly 150%, more than doubling its value. Last week alone, it surged by almost 50%, followed by an additional 18% gain on Monday, making it one of the most volatile stocks on the market today.
What’s particularly striking about this recovery is that it hasn’t been driven by any fundamental changes within the company itself. TMTG has not unveiled any new products, announced new partnerships, or received favorable coverage from major analysts. Instead, the stock’s revival is being fueled by Trump’s improved polling numbers and his perceived chances of retaking the White House.
Market analysts have noted that TMTG’s stock is increasingly being used as a tool for investors to bet on the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management, explained the dynamic: “The market sees this stock as a proxy for Trump’s political prospects. The closer we get to Election Day, the more the stock moves in response to his performance in the polls. If Trump wins, the company could see significant gains. If he loses, the stock will likely tank.”
Donald Trump’s personal involvement in the company adds further complexity. Trump holds over 114.75 million shares in TMTG, making him the company’s largest shareholder, and his presence on Truth Social as its most popular user is central to the platform’s identity. Since the stock began rebounding in late September, the value of Trump’s stake has jumped by an estimated $1.7 billion, pushing his total equity in the company to $3.4 billion.
Jay Ritter, a finance professor at the University of Florida, remarked that TMTG’s rally is reminiscent of other meme stocks, where price fluctuations are driven more by public attention and speculation than by a company’s actual financial performance. “This stock thrives on attention,” Ritter said. “Right now, it’s all about Trump and the election. Betting markets are showing that his odds of winning are improving, and that’s what’s driving the price.”
Indeed, betting platforms like PredictIt have shown a narrowing gap between Trump and his main competitors in recent weeks, including Vice President Kamala Harris. This shift in political sentiment has translated into rising stock prices for TMTG, as traders increasingly see the stock as a high-risk, high-reward investment tied to Trump’s potential victory.
Michael Block, co-founder of AgentSmyth, pointed out that there has been a significant rise in bullish options activity focused around Election Day. “We’re seeing a lot of call options being bought that expire shortly after the election,” Block noted. “That tells us that traders are betting on Trump winning, and they expect the stock to rise if he does.”
Despite the dramatic recovery, TMTG’s stock is still well below its March 2024 peak of $66, and the value of Trump’s holdings is down by about $2 billion from its peak earlier this year. Additionally, the company has not yet demonstrated a clear path to profitability, leaving many investors wary about its long-term prospects.
Another factor that has provided stability to the stock is Trump’s decision not to sell his shares. When the insider lock-up period preventing executives from selling expired, many feared that Trump would sell a portion of his stake, which could have caused the stock price to plummet. However, Trump has publicly stated that he has no plans to sell, reassuring investors and helping to sustain the stock’s rally.
“If Trump had sold, it would have been a major signal to the market that he wasn’t confident in the company’s future,” Tuttle added. “But since he’s holding onto his shares, it’s given investors the confidence to keep buying.”
Despite the recent gains, Ritter and other financial experts remain skeptical about the stock’s long-term viability. Ritter believes the stock is overvalued, given that TMTG has yet to demonstrate any substantial revenue-generating capabilities. “At $25 per share, the company is significantly overvalued,” Ritter said. “If it doesn’t develop a clear business model or if Trump loses the election, the stock could experience a major decline.”
As the 2024 election draws closer, TMTG’s stock will continue to serve as a barometer of Trump’s political prospects. Investors are keeping a close eye on every poll and development, knowing that the outcome of the election will likely determine the company’s fate. For now, the stock remains one of the most unpredictable—and potentially lucrative—bets on Wall Street.
